Ulytau 2–2 Samgurali: Result & Stats

Ulytau

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Samgurali

2/19/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ulytau36%

×Draw28%

Samgurali36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UlytauExpected goals in this matchSamgurali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

Ulytau

1.17

Samgurali

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ulytau

1.33

Samgurali

1.33

allows per match

Ulytau

1.00

Samgurali

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulytau+0.00on par

Samgurali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulytau ↓

Samgurali →

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ulytau or draw

64%

Ulytau or Samgurali

72%

Draw or Samgurali

64%

Winning margin

Ulytau wins by 2+

15%

Samgurali wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ulytau 1+ goals

69%

Ulytau 2+ goals

33%

Ulytau 3+ goals

11%

Samgurali 1+ goals

69%

Samgurali 2+ goals

33%

Samgurali 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ulytau (draw refunded)

50%

Samgurali (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ulytau at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Samgurali away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ulytau attack 1.33 + Samgurali defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Samgurali attack 1.33 + Ulytau defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ulytau scores more

36%

level

28%

Samgurali scores more

36%

Ulytau at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ulytau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ulytau

Samgurali

Manager: Ivan Azovskiy

Ulytau substitutes

10Taubay12Nursultanov40Shcherbakov

Manager: Gomes Thiago

Samgurali substitutes

SiukaevSamueliKvaratskheliaIashviliAptsiauriKankavaWellissolChkhetianiGogiaJefinho

Match Recap: Ulytau vs Samgurali

Ulytau and Samgurali drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 19, 2026.

Ulytau vs Samgurali — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ulytau vs Samgurali