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Ulytau vs Kyran — 1. Division 2019

Ulytau
Ulytau
CANC
00:00
Kyran
Kyran
9/19/20241. Division1. Division · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ulytau59%
×Draw20%
Kyran21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulytau
2.27
Kyran
1.29

Ulytau creates 76% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ulytau
2.43
Kyran
1.73

allows per match

Ulytau
0.86
Kyran
2.10

finishing

Ulytau+0.00on par
Kyran+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulytau ↓

Kyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ulytau or draw
79%
Ulytau or Kyran
80%
Draw or Kyran
41%

Winning margin

Ulytau wins by 2+
37%
Kyran wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ulytau 1+ goals
90%
Ulytau 2+ goals
66%
Ulytau 3+ goals
39%
Kyran 1+ goals
72%
Kyran 2+ goals
37%
Kyran 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ulytau (draw refunded)
74%
Kyran (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulytau at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Kyran away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulytau attack 2.43 + Kyran defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.27

Kyran attack 1.73 + Ulytau defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ulytau scores more
59%
level
20%
Kyran scores more
21%

Ulytau at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ulytau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ulytau vs Kyran — Match Preview

Ulytau face Kyran on September 19, 2024 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.