Ulytau 2–1 FK Tobol Kostanay: Result & Stats

Ulytau

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FK Tobol Kostanay

A. Smith 50' (pen)

D. Martin 41'

U. Milovanovic 7'

4/19/2026

Premier League · Round 6Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ulytau36%

×Draw27%

FK Tobol Kostanay37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UlytauExpected goals in this matchFK Tobol Kostanay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.22

Ulytau

1.21

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

1.14

creates per match

1.17

1.27

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Ulytau

1.14

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.17

allows per match

Ulytau

1.27

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulytau+0.00on par

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulytau ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ulytau or draw

63%

Ulytau or FK Tobol Kostanay

73%

Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay

64%

Winning margin

Ulytau wins by 2+

15%

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ulytau 1+ goals

70%

Ulytau 2+ goals

34%

Ulytau 3+ goals

12%

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

70%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

34%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ulytau (draw refunded)

50%

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulytau at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulytau attack 1.14 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.17 + Ulytau defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ulytau scores more

36%

level

27%

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

37%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

U. Milovanovic↳ M. Vukcevic

15'

David Martin Anane

30'

Uroš Milovanović

41'

D. Martin↳ A. Smith

50'

A. SmithPenalty

58'

A. Cisse← M. Myakish

58'

A. Zuev← R. Asrankulov

58'

R. Hebaj← Z. Zhumashev

62'

62'

68'

76'

78'

K. Nursultanov← A. Taubay

78'

R. Abylaykhan← A. Smith

78'

D. Zhumat← L. Guerra

88'

N. Zhagorov← P. Ndiaye

90+3'

R. Serikkul← H. Harada

Ulytau4-2-3-1

FK3-4-3

30

▼

Guerra

18

⚽

Milovanov

7

▼

Zhumashev

3

▼

Asrankulo

8

Tagyberge

6

▼

Myakish

15

A

Vukcevic

5

▼

22

4

44

1

3

25

28

13

14

▼

Harada

18

Bougnone

7

▼

Kishi

10

▼

Taubay

90

⚽

Martin

11

⚽A

▼

Smith

Manager: Nurken Mazbaev

68'▲M. Chalkin←▼K. Kishi

78'▲K. Nursultanov←▼A. Taubay

78'▲R. Abylaykhan←▼A. Smith

90+3'▲R. Serikkul←▼H. Harada

Ulytau substitutes

4Chalkin6Nursultanov9Serikkul12Afanasenko17Daniyarov20Abylaykhan21Nurali22Kospayev40Shcherbakov69Maulenov77Shauymbay78Zakirov

Manager: Nurbol Zhumaskaliyev

58'▲A. Cisse←▼M. Myakish

58'▲A. Zuev←▼R. Asrankulov

58'▲R. Hebaj←▼Z. Zhumashev

78'▲D. Zhumat←▼L. Guerra

88'▲N. Zhagorov←▼P. Ndiaye

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

1Busurmanov11Marat13Cisse14Talal17Zuev19Zhumat21Zhagorov26Glushchenkov29Usenov33Pivovarov88Kalmyrza99Hebaj

Match Recap: Ulytau vs FK Tobol Kostanay

Ulytau beat FK Tobol Kostanay 2-1 in Premier League on April 19, 2026.

Goals: U. Milovanovic (7'), D. Martin (41'), A. Smith (50' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Zhezqazghan.

Ulytau vs FK Tobol Kostanay — Premier League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ulytau vs FK Tobol Kostanay