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Ulytau vs Akademiya Ontustik — Cup 2019

Ulytau
Ulytau
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
M. Toktybay 72'
B. Toktybay 43'
S. Mazhit 57' (OG)
R. Serikkul 35'
K. Narkulov 30'
E. Amangeldy 24'
3/22/2023CupCup · Qualifying Round - 2Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ulytau23%
×Draw22%
Akademiya Ontustik56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulytau
1.21
Akademiya Ontustik
2.02

Akademiya Ontustik creates 67% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ulytau
1.00
Akademiya Ontustik
1.71

allows per match

Ulytau
2.33
Akademiya Ontustik
1.43

finishing

Ulytau+0.00on par
Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulytau ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ulytau or draw
44%
Ulytau or Akademiya Ontustik
78%
Draw or Akademiya Ontustik
77%

Winning margin

Ulytau wins by 2+
9%
Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Ulytau 1+ goals
70%
Ulytau 2+ goals
34%
Ulytau 3+ goals
12%
Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
87%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
60%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Ulytau (draw refunded)
29%
Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulytau at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulytau attack 1.00 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.71 + Ulytau defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ulytau scores more
23%
level
22%
Akademiya Ontustik scores more
56%

Akademiya Ontustik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Akademiya Ontustik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
E. Amangeldy
30'
K. Narkulov
35'
R. Serikkul
43'
B. Toktybay
44'
S. Bortay
45+1'
B. Rzataev← S. Mazhit
45+1'
A. Omarbek← A. Omarbek
50'
K. Shamil
57'
S. MazhitOwn goal
71'
E. Bayuzak← E. Bayuzak
72'
M. Toktybay
73'
M. Chalkin← A. Seytkaliev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulytau vs Akademiya Ontustik

Akademiya Ontustik beat Ulytau 4-2 in Cup on March 22, 2023.

Goals: E. Amangeldy (24'), K. Narkulov (30'), R. Serikkul (35'), B. Toktybay (43'), S. Mazhit (57' o.g.), M. Toktybay (72').

The match was played at Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field in Shymkent.