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Ulverstone vs Riverside Olympic U21 — Tasmania Northern Championship 2026

Ulverstone
Ulverstone
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Riverside Olympic U21
Riverside Olympic U21
8/9/2025Tasmania Northern ChampionshipTasmania Northern Championship · Round 17Ulverstone Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ulverstone76%
×Draw12%
Riverside Olympic U2112%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulverstone
3.76
Riverside Olympic U21
1.51

Ulverstone creates 149% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ulverstone
4.14
Riverside Olympic U21
1.64

allows per match

Ulverstone
1.38
Riverside Olympic U21
3.39

finishing

Ulverstone+0.00on par
Riverside Olympic U21+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulverstone ↓

Riverside Olympic U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Ulverstone or draw
88%
Ulverstone or Riverside Olympic U21
88%
Draw or Riverside Olympic U21
24%

Winning margin

Ulverstone wins by 2+
58%
Riverside Olympic U21 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ulverstone 1+ goals
97%
Ulverstone 2+ goals
88%
Ulverstone 3+ goals
70%
Riverside Olympic U21 1+ goals
78%
Riverside Olympic U21 2+ goals
44%
Riverside Olympic U21 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ulverstone (draw refunded)
87%
Riverside Olympic U21 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulverstone at home — creates 4.14, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

Riverside Olympic U21 away — creates 1.64, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulverstone attack 4.14 + Riverside Olympic U21 defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 3.76

Riverside Olympic U21 attack 1.64 + Ulverstone defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Ulverstone scores more
76%
level
12%
Riverside Olympic U21 scores more
12%

Ulverstone at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Ulverstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania Northern Championship: Ulverstone 5–2 Riverside Olympic U21

Ulverstone beat Riverside Olympic U21 5-2 in Tasmania Northern Championship on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Ulverstone Showgrounds in Ulverstone.