Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Yangju Citizen — FA Cup 2019

Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FCadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yangju Citizen
Yangju Citizen
8/11/2021FA CupFA Cup · Quarter-finalsUlsan Munsu Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC62%
×Draw22%
Yangju Citizen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.92
Yangju Citizen
0.86

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 123% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
2.00
Yangju Citizen
1.17

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
0.56
Yangju Citizen
1.83

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par
Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Yangju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw
84%
Ulsan Hyundai FC or Yangju Citizen
78%
Draw or Yangju Citizen
38%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
37%
Yangju Citizen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
85%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
57%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
30%
Yangju Citizen 1+ goals
58%
Yangju Citizen 2+ goals
21%
Yangju Citizen 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
79%
Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Yangju Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 2.00 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Yangju Citizen attack 1.17 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
62%
level
22%
Yangju Citizen scores more
16%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Yangju Citizen

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Yangju Citizen 2-0 in FA Cup on August 11, 2021.

The match was played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in Ulsan.