Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–2 Vissel Kobe: Result & Stats

Ulsan Hyundai FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Vissel Kobe

10/23/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 3Ulsan Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC45%

×Draw26%

Vissel Kobe30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulsan Hyundai FCExpected goals in this matchVissel Kobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.18

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.50

Vissel Kobe

1.18

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 13 away

1.85

creates per match

1.54

0.82

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.85

Vissel Kobe

1.54

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC

0.82

Vissel Kobe

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Vissel Kobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw

70%

Ulsan Hyundai FC or Vissel Kobe

74%

Draw or Vissel Kobe

55%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+

22%

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals

78%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals

44%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals

19%

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

69%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

33%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)

60%

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.85 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vissel Kobe attack 1.54 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more

45%

level

26%

Vissel Kobe scores more

30%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff