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Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — AFC Champions League 2018

Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
10/21/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Phase East - 3Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC51%
×Draw26%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.54
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.97

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.85
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.11

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
0.82
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.22

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par
Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw
76%
Ulsan Hyundai FC or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
74%
Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
49%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
26%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
79%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
45%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
20%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
62%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
25%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
68%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.85 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.11 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
51%
level
26%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
24%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 in AFC Champions League on October 21, 2025.

The match was played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in Ulsan.