Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–0 Perth Glory FC: Result & Stats

Ulsan Hyundai FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Perth Glory FC

11/27/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC61%

×Draw22%

Perth Glory FC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulsan Hyundai FCExpected goals in this matchPerth Glory FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.91

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.93

Perth Glory FC

0.91

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 112% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 3 away

1.85

creates per match

1.00

0.82

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.85

Perth Glory FC

1.00

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC

0.82

Perth Glory FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Perth Glory FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Perth Glory FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw

83%

Ulsan Hyundai FC or Perth Glory FC

78%

Draw or Perth Glory FC

39%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+

36%

Perth Glory FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals

85%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals

57%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals

30%

Perth Glory FC 1+ goals

60%

Perth Glory FC 2+ goals

23%

Perth Glory FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)

78%

Perth Glory FC (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Perth Glory FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.85 + Perth Glory FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Perth Glory FC attack 1.00 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more

61%

level

22%

Perth Glory FC scores more

17%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff