Ulsan Hyundai FC 6–2 Melbourne Victory

Ulsan Hyundai FC

FT

6 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Melbourne Victory

4/4/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC70%

×Draw18%

Melbourne Victory12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulsan Hyundai FCExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.86

Ulsan Hyundai FC

2.33

Melbourne Victory

0.86

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 171% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 11 away

1.85

creates per match

0.91

0.82

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.85

Melbourne Victory

0.91

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC

0.82

Melbourne Victory

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Melbourne Victory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw

88%

Ulsan Hyundai FC or Melbourne Victory

82%

Draw or Melbourne Victory

30%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+

47%

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals

90%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals

67%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals

41%

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

58%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

21%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)

85%

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.85 + Melbourne Victory defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.33

Melbourne Victory attack 0.91 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more

70%

level

18%

Melbourne Victory scores more

12%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff