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Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Kaya — AFC Champions League 2018

Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kaya
Kaya
7/5/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group F - 4LEO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC77%
×Draw15%
Kaya8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulsan Hyundai FC
2.49
Kaya
0.66

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 277% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.85
Kaya
0.50

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
0.82
Kaya
3.13

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par
Kaya+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Kaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw
92%
Ulsan Hyundai FC or Kaya
85%
Draw or Kaya
23%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
55%
Kaya wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
92%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
71%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
45%
Kaya 1+ goals
48%
Kaya 2+ goals
14%
Kaya 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
91%
Kaya (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Kaya away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.85 + Kaya defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.49

Kaya attack 0.50 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
77%
level
15%
Kaya scores more
8%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–1 Kaya

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Kaya 2-1 in AFC Champions League on July 5, 2021.

The match was played at LEO Stadium in Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani.