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Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Kawasaki Frontale — AFC Champions League 2018

Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
4/10/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC35%
×Draw24%
Kawasaki Frontale41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.43
Kawasaki Frontale
1.58

Kawasaki Frontale creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 23 away

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.85
Kawasaki Frontale
2.35

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
0.82
Kawasaki Frontale
1.00

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par
Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw
59%
Ulsan Hyundai FC or Kawasaki Frontale
76%
Draw or Kawasaki Frontale
65%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
16%
Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
76%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
42%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
17%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
79%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
47%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
46%
Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.85 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.35 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
35%
level
24%
Kawasaki Frontale scores more
41%

Kawasaki Frontale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–0 Kawasaki Frontale

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Kawasaki Frontale 1-0 in AFC Champions League on April 10, 2019.

The match was played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in Ulsan.