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Kawasaki Frontale vs Ulsan Hyundai FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
10/3/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group I - 2Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale55%
×Draw22%
Ulsan Hyundai FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawasaki Frontale
1.96
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.21

Kawasaki Frontale creates 62% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 31 away

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale
2.43
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.48

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale
0.95
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.48

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par
Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Ulsan Hyundai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw
77%
Kawasaki Frontale or Ulsan Hyundai FC
78%
Draw or Ulsan Hyundai FC
45%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
32%
Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
86%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
58%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
31%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
70%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
34%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
70%
Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.43 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.96

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.48 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more
55%
level
22%
Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
23%

Kawasaki Frontale at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawasaki Frontale vs Ulsan Hyundai FC

Kawasaki Frontale beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on October 3, 2023.

The match was played at Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium in Kawasaki.