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Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Chengdu Better City — AFC Champions League 2018

Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
Heo Yool 90'
Um Won-Sang 76'
P. Delgado 44'
9/17/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Phase East - 1Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC55%
×Draw23%
Chengdu Better City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.80
Chengdu Better City
1.03

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 75% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.85
Chengdu Better City
1.25

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
0.82
Chengdu Better City
1.75

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par
Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Chengdu Better City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw
78%
Ulsan Hyundai FC or Chengdu Better City
77%
Draw or Chengdu Better City
45%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
31%
Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
83%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
54%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
27%
Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
64%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
28%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
72%
Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.85 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.80

Chengdu Better City attack 1.25 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
55%
level
23%
Chengdu Better City scores more
22%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
Heo YoolUlsan Hyundai FCUlsan Hyundai FC · F
7.9

Match Events

44'
P. Delgado
46'
Jung Seung-Hyun← Seo Myung-Guan
46'
Heo Yool← Jung Woo-Young
46'
Erick Farias← Marcao
49'
In-woo BackPenalty cancelled
54'
Shuai Yang
62'
Lee Jin-Hyun← Baek In-Woo
64'
Yuan Mincheng← Yang Shuai
64'
Gan Chao← Yang Ming-Yang
66'
Jae-ik Lee
72'
Um Won-Sang← H. Lee
72'
Tang Chuang← Felipe Silva
76'
Um Won-Sang
77'
Y. Dong← T. Letschert
77'
Liao Rongxiang← Romulo
83'
Pedro Delgado
90+3'
Pedro Delgado
90+3'
Pedro Delgado
90'
Heo Yool↳ Um Won-Sang

Possession

62%Ulsan

Shots

17Ulsan

Pass accuracy

52%Ulsan

Statistics

UlsanChengdu
Overview
62%Possession38%
17Total Shots10
7Corners2
13Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots10
10On Target4
5Off Target4
2Blocked2
11Inside Box6
6Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
552Total Passes335
462Accurate Passes257
84%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves8
Discipline
13Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Chengdu Better City

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Chengdu Better City 2-1 in AFC Champions League on September 17, 2025.

Goals: P. Delgado (44'), Um Won-Sang (76'), Heo Yool (90').

Ulsan Hyundai FC controlled possession (62%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in Ulsan.