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Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Beijing Guoan — AFC Champions League 2018

Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FCadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
12/10/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsAl Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC61%
×Draw22%
Beijing Guoan17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.93
Beijing Guoan
0.91

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 112% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.85
Beijing Guoan
1.00

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
0.82
Beijing Guoan
2.00

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw
83%
Ulsan Hyundai FC or Beijing Guoan
78%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
39%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
36%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
85%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
57%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
30%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
60%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
23%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
78%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.85 + Beijing Guoan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Beijing Guoan attack 1.00 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
61%
level
22%
Beijing Guoan scores more
17%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Beijing Guoan

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Beijing Guoan 2-0 in AFC Champions League on December 10, 2020.

The match was played at Al Janoub Stadium in Al Wakrah.