Ulsan Citizen 0–2 Sangju Sangmu FC: Result & Stats

Ulsan Citizen

0 – 2

Sangju Sangmu FC

7/1/2020

FA Cup · 3rd RoundUlsan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ulsan Citizen44%

×Draw26%

Sangju Sangmu FC30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulsan CitizenExpected goals in this matchSangju Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.20

Ulsan Citizen

1.50

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.20

Ulsan Citizen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

1.60

0.80

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ulsan Citizen

2.00

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.60

allows per match

Ulsan Citizen

0.80

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulsan Citizen+0.00on par

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Citizen ↓

Sangju Sangmu FC →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ulsan Citizen or draw

70%

Ulsan Citizen or Sangju Sangmu FC

74%

Draw or Sangju Sangmu FC

56%

Winning margin

Ulsan Citizen wins by 2+

22%

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ulsan Citizen 1+ goals

78%

Ulsan Citizen 2+ goals

44%

Ulsan Citizen 3+ goals

19%

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals

70%

Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals

34%

Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Citizen (draw refunded)

59%

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Citizen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Sangju Sangmu FC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Citizen attack 2.00 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.60 + Ulsan Citizen defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ulsan Citizen scores more

44%

level

26%

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more

30%

Ulsan Citizen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ulsan Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff