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Ulpiana vs Llapi — Superliga 2019

Ulpiana
Ulpiana
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Llapi
Llapi
4/10/2022SuperligaSuperliga · Round 28Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ulpiana28%
×Draw24%
Llapi48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulpiana
1.22
Llapi
1.67

Llapi creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 125 away

creates per match

Ulpiana
1.00
Llapi
1.28

allows per match

Ulpiana
2.06
Llapi
1.44

finishing

Ulpiana+0.00on par
Llapi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulpiana ↓

Llapi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ulpiana or draw
52%
Ulpiana or Llapi
76%
Draw or Llapi
72%

Winning margin

Ulpiana wins by 2+
11%
Llapi wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ulpiana 1+ goals
70%
Ulpiana 2+ goals
34%
Ulpiana 3+ goals
12%
Llapi 1+ goals
81%
Llapi 2+ goals
50%
Llapi 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ulpiana (draw refunded)
37%
Llapi (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulpiana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

Llapi away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulpiana attack 1.00 + Llapi defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Llapi attack 1.28 + Ulpiana defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ulpiana scores more
28%
level
24%
Llapi scores more
48%

Llapi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Llapi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulpiana vs Llapi

Llapi beat Ulpiana 2-0 in Superliga on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi in Lipjan.