Ulpiana 2–0 Liria Prizren: Result & Stats | Cup

Ulpiana

2 – 0

Liria Prizren

12/13/2020

Cup · 16th FinalsStadiumi Shtime

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ulpiana67%

×Draw19%

Liria Prizren14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UlpianaExpected goals in this matchLiria Prizren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.83

Ulpiana

2.13

Liria Prizren

0.83

Ulpiana creates 157% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Ulpiana

2.00

Liria Prizren

1.00

allows per match

Ulpiana

0.67

Liria Prizren

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulpiana+0.00on par

Liria Prizren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulpiana ↓

Liria Prizren →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ulpiana or draw

86%

Ulpiana or Liria Prizren

81%

Draw or Liria Prizren

33%

Winning margin

Ulpiana wins by 2+

43%

Liria Prizren wins by 2+

Team goals

Ulpiana 1+ goals

88%

Ulpiana 2+ goals

63%

Ulpiana 3+ goals

35%

Liria Prizren 1+ goals

56%

Liria Prizren 2+ goals

20%

Liria Prizren 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ulpiana (draw refunded)

83%

Liria Prizren (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ulpiana at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Liria Prizren away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ulpiana attack 2.00 + Liria Prizren defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Liria Prizren attack 1.00 + Ulpiana defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ulpiana scores more

67%

level

19%

Liria Prizren scores more

14%

Ulpiana at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ulpiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff