Ulm U19 0–1 Kickers Offenbach U19: Result & Stats

Ulm U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kickers Offenbach U19

T. Sausen 21'

10/18/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 3Nebenplatz Stadion bei H-L-P

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ulm U1952%

×Draw20%

Kickers Offenbach U1928%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulm U19Expected goals in this matchKickers Offenbach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.71

Ulm U19

2.37

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.71

Ulm U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 47 away

1.67

creates per match

0.98

2.44

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Ulm U19

1.67

Kickers Offenbach U19

0.98

allows per match

Ulm U19

2.44

Kickers Offenbach U19

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Kickers Offenbach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw

72%

Ulm U19 or Kickers Offenbach U19

80%

Draw or Kickers Offenbach U19

48%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

32%

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals

91%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

68%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

42%

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

82%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

51%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.44 · 45 matches

Kickers Offenbach U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.67 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.37

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 0.98 + Ulm U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ulm U19 scores more

52%

level

20%

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

28%

Ulm U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ulm U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

T. Sausen

30'

M. Schweinstetter← M. Fofanah

39'

D. Spizert← B. Dikmen

59'

G. Agbodemegbe← J. Schmid

64'

J. Peter← R. Passaro

64'

M. Sentürk← F. Yumurtaoğlu

71'

R. Kreis← A. Vrčić

74'

M. Aimene← N. Meyer

90'

A. Amadou← M. Sentürk

Ulm

Kickers

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Gmünder

30'▲M. Schweinstetter←▼M. Fofanah

39'▲D. Spizert←▼B. Dikmen

59'▲G. Agbodemegbe←▼J. Schmid

64'▲J. Peter←▼R. Passaro

Ulm U19 substitutes

SchweinstetterSpizertAgbodemegbePeterXhemailiqLegerJakovljevic

Manager: R. Trabert

64'▲M. Sentürk←▼F. Yumurtaoğlu

71'▲R. Kreis←▼A. Vrčić

74'▲M. Aimene←▼N. Meyer

90'▲A. Amadou←▼M. Sentürk

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

SentürkKreisAimeneAmadouVassiliouTae-HoMbanga

U19 Bundesliga: Ulm U19 0–1 Kickers Offenbach U19

Kickers Offenbach U19 beat Ulm U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 18, 2020.

Goals: T. Sausen (21').

The match was played at Nebenplatz Stadion bei H-L-P in Ulm.

Ulm U19 vs Kickers Offenbach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Ulm U19 0–1 Kickers Offenbach U19