Ulm U19 0–1 Kaiserslautern U19: Result & Stats

Ulm U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kaiserslautern U19

T. Walker 82'

2/27/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 16Nebenplatz Stadion bei H-L-P

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ulm U1938%

×Draw21%

Kaiserslautern U1941%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulm U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.03

Ulm U19

1.96

Kaiserslautern U19

2.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 68 away

1.67

creates per match

1.62

2.44

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Ulm U19

1.67

Kaiserslautern U19

1.62

allows per match

Ulm U19

2.44

Kaiserslautern U19

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw

59%

Ulm U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

79%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

62%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

21%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals

86%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

58%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

31%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

87%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

60%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.44 · 45 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.67 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.62 + Ulm U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ulm U19 scores more

38%

level

21%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

41%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Bauer← D. Miftari

46'

M. Müller← M. Karas

46'

T. Walker← P. Nicklis

70'

D. Hoor← N. Wettengl

82'

T. Walker

85'

M. Fofanah← N. Dubroja

87'

S. Puseljic← J. Nsanzimana

Ulm

Kaiserslautern

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Gmünder

85'▲M. Fofanah←▼N. Dubroja

87'▲S. Puseljic←▼J. Nsanzimana

Ulm U19 substitutes

FofanahPuseljicAnnabringWagnerLaaschTaglangHaiß

Manager: A. Bugera

46'▲M. Bauer←▼D. Miftari

46'▲M. Müller←▼M. Karas

46'▲T. Walker←▼P. Nicklis

70'▲D. Hoor←▼N. Wettengl

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

BauerMüllerWalkerHoorMerkPetricaHeck

Match Recap: Ulm U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19

Kaiserslautern U19 beat Ulm U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 27, 2022.

Goals: T. Walker (82').

The match was played at Nebenplatz Stadion bei H-L-P in Ulm.

Ulm U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ulm U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19