Ulm U19 4–0 Hessen Kassel U19: Result & Stats

Ulm U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hessen Kassel U19

R. Kratt 77'

B. Dikmen 63', 47'

R. Reinelt 44'

10/24/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 8Nebenplatz Stadion bei H-L-P

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ulm U1972%

×Draw14%

Hessen Kassel U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulm U19Expected goals in this matchHessen Kassel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.38

1.47

Ulm U19

3.38

Hessen Kassel U19

1.47

Ulm U19 creates 130% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

0.50

2.44

allows per match

5.10

creates per match

Ulm U19

1.67

Hessen Kassel U19

0.50

allows per match

Ulm U19

2.44

Hessen Kassel U19

5.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Hessen Kassel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw

86%

Ulm U19 or Hessen Kassel U19

86%

Draw or Hessen Kassel U19

28%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

54%

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals

96%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

84%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

64%

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

77%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

43%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

84%

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.44 · 45 matches

Hessen Kassel U19 away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.67 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 5.10 → ÷2 → 3.38

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.50 + Ulm U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Ulm U19 scores more

72%

level

14%

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

14%

Ulm U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Ulm U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

R. Reinelt

47'

B. Dikmen

56'

T. Tahiri← S. Yigitoglu

60'

H. Eckhardt← J. Gremler

63'

66'

69'

77'

80'

D. Gerstmayer← B. Dikmen

83'

E. Seidelmann← L. Garcia

83'

M. Porada← F. di Giglio

84'

S. Haiß← A. Yılmaz

Ulm

Hessen

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Dikmen

Manager: C. Gmünder

66'▲R. Kratt←▼J. Holzer

69'▲J. Schmid←▼M. Bareis

80'▲D. Gerstmayer←▼B. Dikmen

84'▲S. Haiß←▼A. Yılmaz

Ulm U19 substitutes

KrattSchmidGerstmayerHaißAgbodemegbeWagnerFofanah

Manager: A. Noja

56'▲T. Tahiri←▼S. Yigitoglu

60'▲H. Eckhardt←▼J. Gremler

83'▲E. Seidelmann←▼L. Garcia

83'▲M. Porada←▼F. di Giglio

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

TahiriEckhardtSeidelmannPoradaArslanBindbeutelFelmeden

U19 Bundesliga: Ulm U19 4–0 Hessen Kassel U19

Ulm U19 beat Hessen Kassel U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 24, 2021.

Goals: R. Reinelt (44'), B. Dikmen (47', 63'), R. Kratt (77').

The match was played at Nebenplatz Stadion bei H-L-P in Ulm.

Ulm U19 vs Hessen Kassel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Ulm U19 4–0 Hessen Kassel U19