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Ulm U19 vs Gonsenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Ulm U19
Ulm U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Gonsenheim U19
Gonsenheim U19
5/10/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 13Albeck Hauptspielfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ulm U1955%
×Draw18%
Gonsenheim U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulm U19
2.96
Gonsenheim U19
2.12

Ulm U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ulm U19
1.74
Gonsenheim U19
1.83

allows per match

Ulm U19
2.41
Gonsenheim U19
4.17

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par
Gonsenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Gonsenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw
72%
Ulm U19 or Gonsenheim U19
82%
Draw or Gonsenheim U19
45%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+
36%
Gonsenheim U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals
95%
Ulm U19 2+ goals
79%
Ulm U19 3+ goals
55%
Gonsenheim U19 1+ goals
88%
Gonsenheim U19 2+ goals
62%
Gonsenheim U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Gonsenheim U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

Gonsenheim U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.74 + Gonsenheim U19 defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.96

Gonsenheim U19 attack 1.83 + Ulm U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ulm U19 scores more
55%
level
18%
Gonsenheim U19 scores more
28%

Ulm U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ulm U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulm U19 vs Gonsenheim U19

Gonsenheim U19 beat Ulm U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Albeck Hauptspielfeld in Albeck.