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Ulm U19 vs Bochum U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Ulm U19
Ulm U19
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Bochum U19
Bochum U19
4/25/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ulm U1927%
×Draw20%
Bochum U1953%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulm U19
1.59
Bochum U19
2.29

Bochum U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 67 away

creates per match

Ulm U19
1.67
Bochum U19
2.13

allows per match

Ulm U19
2.44
Bochum U19
1.52

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par
Bochum U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Bochum U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw
47%
Ulm U19 or Bochum U19
80%
Draw or Bochum U19
73%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+
12%
Bochum U19 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals
80%
Ulm U19 2+ goals
47%
Ulm U19 3+ goals
21%
Bochum U19 1+ goals
90%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
66%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)
33%
Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.44 · 45 matches

Bochum U19 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.67 + Bochum U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.59

Bochum U19 attack 2.13 + Ulm U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ulm U19 scores more
27%
level
20%
Bochum U19 scores more
53%

Bochum U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Ulm U19 2–4 Bochum U19

Bochum U19 beat Ulm U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 25, 2026.