Ulm U19 1–3 Augsburg U19: Result & Stats

Ulm U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Augsburg U19

3/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 5Kunstrasenplatz Donau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ulm U1936%

×Draw21%

Augsburg U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulm U19Expected goals in this matchAugsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.09

Ulm U19

1.90

Augsburg U19

2.09

Augsburg U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 71 away

1.74

creates per match

1.77

2.41

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Ulm U19

1.74

Augsburg U19

1.77

allows per match

Ulm U19

2.41

Augsburg U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par

Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Augsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw

57%

Ulm U19 or Augsburg U19

79%

Draw or Augsburg U19

64%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+

19%

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals

85%

Ulm U19 2+ goals

56%

Ulm U19 3+ goals

29%

Augsburg U19 1+ goals

88%

Augsburg U19 2+ goals

62%

Augsburg U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

Augsburg U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.06 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.74 + Augsburg U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.90

Augsburg U19 attack 1.77 + Ulm U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ulm U19 scores more

36%

level

21%

Augsburg U19 scores more

43%

Augsburg U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Augsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff