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Ulm U19 vs Augsburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Ulm U19
Ulm U19
CANC
11:00
Augsburg U19
Augsburg U19
11/7/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 6Nebenplatz Stadion bei H-L-P

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ulm U1934%
×Draw21%
Augsburg U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulm U19
1.85
Augsburg U19
2.13

Augsburg U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 73 away

creates per match

Ulm U19
1.67
Augsburg U19
1.81

allows per match

Ulm U19
2.44
Augsburg U19
2.03

finishing

Ulm U19+0.00on par
Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulm U19 ↓

Augsburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Ulm U19 or draw
55%
Ulm U19 or Augsburg U19
79%
Draw or Augsburg U19
66%

Winning margin

Ulm U19 wins by 2+
18%
Augsburg U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ulm U19 1+ goals
84%
Ulm U19 2+ goals
55%
Ulm U19 3+ goals
28%
Augsburg U19 1+ goals
88%
Augsburg U19 2+ goals
63%
Augsburg U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Ulm U19 (draw refunded)
43%
Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulm U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.44 · 45 matches

Augsburg U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.03 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulm U19 attack 1.67 + Augsburg U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.85

Augsburg U19 attack 1.81 + Ulm U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ulm U19 scores more
34%
level
21%
Augsburg U19 scores more
45%

Augsburg U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Augsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ulm U19 face Augsburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Ulm U19 hosting Augsburg U19. Match starts November 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ulm U19 host Augsburg U19 at Nebenplatz Stadion bei H-L-P.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.