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Ullern vs Øygarden — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Ullern
Ullern
CANC
13:00
Øygarden
Øygarden
9/17/20222. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ullern68%
×Draw18%
Øygarden14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern
2.38
Øygarden
1.00

Ullern creates 138% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ullern
2.08
Øygarden
0.67

allows per match

Ullern
1.33
Øygarden
2.67

finishing

Ullern+0.00on par
Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern ↓

Øygarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ullern or draw
86%
Ullern or Øygarden
82%
Draw or Øygarden
32%

Winning margin

Ullern wins by 2+
45%
Øygarden wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ullern 1+ goals
91%
Ullern 2+ goals
68%
Ullern 3+ goals
42%
Øygarden 1+ goals
63%
Øygarden 2+ goals
26%
Øygarden 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ullern (draw refunded)
82%
Øygarden (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Øygarden away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern attack 2.08 + Øygarden defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.38

Øygarden attack 0.67 + Ullern defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ullern scores more
68%
level
18%
Øygarden scores more
14%

Ullern at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ullern vs Øygarden — Match Preview

Ullern face Øygarden on September 17, 2022 in this 2. Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ullern host Øygarden at Ullern kunstgress.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.