Ullern 6–0 Ulfstind: Result & Stats

Ullern

FT

6 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ulfstind

T. Vold 90'

N. Knezevic 75', 66', 23'

A. Nouri 71'

M. Stolan 60'

6/7/2025

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 9Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern59%

×Draw18%

Ulfstind23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UllernExpected goals in this matchUlfstind

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.66

Ullern

2.69

Ulfstind

1.66

Ullern creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

2.68

creates per match

1.00

2.32

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Ullern

2.68

Ulfstind

1.00

allows per match

Ullern

2.32

Ulfstind

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ullern+0.00on par

Ulfstind+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern ↓

Ulfstind →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Ullern or draw

77%

Ullern or Ulfstind

82%

Draw or Ulfstind

41%

Winning margin

Ullern wins by 2+

39%

Ulfstind wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ullern 1+ goals

93%

Ullern 2+ goals

74%

Ullern 3+ goals

49%

Ulfstind 1+ goals

81%

Ulfstind 2+ goals

49%

Ulfstind 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Ullern (draw refunded)

72%

Ulfstind (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern at home — creates 2.68, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

Ulfstind away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern attack 2.68 + Ulfstind defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.69

Ulfstind attack 1.00 + Ullern defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ullern scores more

59%

level

18%

Ulfstind scores more

23%

Ullern at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

60'

66'

71'

75'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff