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Ullern vs Sotra — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Ullern
Ullern
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Sotra
Sotra
11/4/20232. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern40%
×Draw25%
Sotra35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern
1.49
Sotra
1.36

Ullern creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 48 away

creates per match

Ullern
0.92
Sotra
1.19

allows per match

Ullern
1.54
Sotra
2.06

finishing

Ullern+0.00on par
Sotra+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern ↓

Sotra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ullern or draw
65%
Ullern or Sotra
75%
Draw or Sotra
60%

Winning margin

Ullern wins by 2+
20%
Sotra wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ullern 1+ goals
77%
Ullern 2+ goals
44%
Ullern 3+ goals
19%
Sotra 1+ goals
74%
Sotra 2+ goals
39%
Sotra 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ullern (draw refunded)
54%
Sotra (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Sotra away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.06 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern attack 0.92 + Sotra defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sotra attack 1.19 + Ullern defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ullern scores more
40%
level
25%
Sotra scores more
35%

Ullern at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ullern vs Sotra

Sotra beat Ullern 4-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Ullern kunstgress in Oslo.