Ullern 4–2 Funnefoss / Vormsund: Result & Stats

Ullern

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Funnefoss / Vormsund

M. Victorio 83'

A. Nouri 68', 36', 3'

A. Jebanathan 19'

M. Rismoen 10'

4/26/2025

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 4Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ullern53%

×Draw19%

Funnefoss / Vormsund29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UllernExpected goals in this matchFunnefoss / Vormsund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.96

Ullern

2.67

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.96

Ullern creates 36% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

2.68

creates per match

1.60

2.32

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Ullern

2.68

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.60

allows per match

Ullern

2.32

Funnefoss / Vormsund

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ullern+0.00on par

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Ullern or draw

71%

Ullern or Funnefoss / Vormsund

81%

Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund

47%

Winning margin

Ullern wins by 2+

34%

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ullern 1+ goals

93%

Ullern 2+ goals

74%

Ullern 3+ goals

49%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals

86%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals

58%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Ullern (draw refunded)

65%

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern at home — creates 2.68, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern attack 2.68 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.67

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.60 + Ullern defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ullern scores more

53%

level

19%

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more

29%

Ullern at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

10'

19'

36'

68'

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff