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Ullern vs Flint — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Ullern
Ullern
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Flint
Flint
10/20/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 25Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern50%
×Draw21%
Flint30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern
2.19
Flint
1.66

Ullern creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ullern
2.38
Flint
1.31

allows per match

Ullern
2.00
Flint
2.00

finishing

Ullern+0.00on par
Flint+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern ↓

Flint →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Ullern or draw
70%
Ullern or Flint
79%
Draw or Flint
50%

Winning margin

Ullern wins by 2+
29%
Flint wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ullern 1+ goals
89%
Ullern 2+ goals
64%
Ullern 3+ goals
37%
Flint 1+ goals
81%
Flint 2+ goals
49%
Flint 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ullern (draw refunded)
63%
Flint (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Flint away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern attack 2.38 + Flint defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Flint attack 1.31 + Ullern defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ullern scores more
50%
level
21%
Flint scores more
30%

Ullern at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ullern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ullern 3 – 1 Flint

Ullern beat Flint 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Ullern kunstgress in Oslo.