Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ullern II vs Sandviken — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Ullern II
Ullern II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 0
Sandviken
Sandviken
D. Ademaj 7'
O. Bakke Hodne 88'
Unknown 78'
S. Naess 69'
S. Haugland 60', 48'
8/19/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 16Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern II28%
×Draw21%
Sandviken51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern II
1.59
Sandviken
2.17

Sandviken creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 39 away

creates per match

Ullern II
1.69
Sandviken
2.18

allows per match

Ullern II
2.15
Sandviken
1.49

finishing

Ullern II+0.00on par
Sandviken+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern II ↓

Sandviken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ullern II or draw
49%
Ullern II or Sandviken
79%
Draw or Sandviken
72%

Winning margin

Ullern II wins by 2+
13%
Sandviken wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Ullern II 1+ goals
80%
Ullern II 2+ goals
47%
Ullern II 3+ goals
21%
Sandviken 1+ goals
89%
Sandviken 2+ goals
64%
Sandviken 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Ullern II (draw refunded)
36%
Sandviken (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Sandviken away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.49 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern II attack 1.69 + Sandviken defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sandviken attack 2.18 + Ullern II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ullern II scores more
28%
level
21%
Sandviken scores more
51%

Sandviken at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sandviken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
D. Ademaj
48'
S. Haugland
60'
S. Haugland
69'
S. Naess
78'
88'
O. Bakke Hodne

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ullern II vs Sandviken

Sandviken beat Ullern II 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 19, 2023.

Goals: D. Ademaj (7'), S. Haugland (48', 60'), S. Naess (69'), ? (78'), O. Bakke Hodne (88').

The match was played at Ullern kunstgress in Oslo.