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Ullern II vs Lokomotiv Oslo — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Ullern II
Ullern II
FT
0 – 1
Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo
4/11/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 1Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern II41%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv Oslo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern II
1.92
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ullern II
1.69
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.48

allows per match

Ullern II
2.15
Lokomotiv Oslo
2.15

finishing

Ullern II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern II ↓

Lokomotiv Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Ullern II or draw
63%
Ullern II or Lokomotiv Oslo
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv Oslo
59%

Winning margin

Ullern II wins by 2+
22%
Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ullern II 1+ goals
85%
Ullern II 2+ goals
57%
Ullern II 3+ goals
30%
Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals
84%
Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals
54%
Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Ullern II (draw refunded)
53%
Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Lokomotiv Oslo away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern II attack 1.69 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.92

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.48 + Ullern II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ullern II scores more
41%
level
22%
Lokomotiv Oslo scores more
37%

Ullern II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ullern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ullern II vs Lokomotiv Oslo

Lokomotiv Oslo beat Ullern II 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on April 11, 2023.

The match was played at Ullern kunstgress in Oslo.