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Ullern II vs Fana — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Ullern II
Ullern II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Fana
Fana
7/1/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 12Ullern kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullern II33%
×Draw20%
Fana47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullern II
1.84
Fana
2.23

Fana creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ullern II
1.69
Fana
2.31

allows per match

Ullern II
2.15
Fana
2.00

finishing

Ullern II+0.00on par
Fana+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullern II ↓

Fana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Ullern II or draw
53%
Ullern II or Fana
80%
Draw or Fana
67%

Winning margin

Ullern II wins by 2+
17%
Fana wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Ullern II 1+ goals
84%
Ullern II 2+ goals
55%
Ullern II 3+ goals
28%
Fana 1+ goals
89%
Fana 2+ goals
65%
Fana 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Ullern II (draw refunded)
41%
Fana (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullern II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Fana away — creates 2.31, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullern II attack 1.69 + Fana defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Fana attack 2.31 + Ullern II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ullern II scores more
33%
level
20%
Fana scores more
47%

Fana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ullern II 1 – 4 Fana

Fana beat Ullern II 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Ullern kunstgress in Oslo.