Ullensaker / Kisa II 3–4 Lillehammer

Ullensaker / Kisa II

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Lillehammer

8/31/2025

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 18Jessheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullensaker / Kisa II21%

×Draw18%

Lillehammer61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ullensaker / Kisa IIExpected goals in this matchLillehammer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.54

Ullensaker / Kisa II

1.43

Lillehammer

2.54

Lillehammer creates 78% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.54

creates per match

1.38

3.69

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ullensaker / Kisa II

1.54

Lillehammer

1.38

allows per match

Ullensaker / Kisa II

3.69

Lillehammer

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ullensaker / Kisa II+0.00on par

Lillehammer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullensaker / Kisa II ↓

Lillehammer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Ullensaker / Kisa II or draw

39%

Ullensaker / Kisa II or Lillehammer

82%

Draw or Lillehammer

79%

Winning margin

Ullensaker / Kisa II wins by 2+

9%

Lillehammer wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Ullensaker / Kisa II 1+ goals

76%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 2+ goals

42%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 3+ goals

17%

Lillehammer 1+ goals

92%

Lillehammer 2+ goals

72%

Lillehammer 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Ullensaker / Kisa II (draw refunded)

25%

Lillehammer (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullensaker / Kisa II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 3.69 · 13 matches

Lillehammer away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullensaker / Kisa II attack 1.54 + Lillehammer defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Lillehammer attack 1.38 + Ullensaker / Kisa II defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ullensaker / Kisa II scores more

21%

level

18%

Lillehammer scores more

61%

Lillehammer at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lillehammer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff