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Ullensaker / Kisa II vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Ullensaker / Kisa II
Ullensaker / Kisa II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
HamKam II
HamKam II
6/15/20253. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 10Jessheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullensaker / Kisa II32%
×Draw19%
HamKam II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullensaker / Kisa II
2.12
HamKam II
2.62

HamKam II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ullensaker / Kisa II
1.54
HamKam II
1.54

allows per match

Ullensaker / Kisa II
3.69
HamKam II
2.69

finishing

Ullensaker / Kisa II+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullensaker / Kisa II ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Ullensaker / Kisa II or draw
51%
Ullensaker / Kisa II or HamKam II
81%
Draw or HamKam II
68%

Winning margin

Ullensaker / Kisa II wins by 2+
17%
HamKam II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Ullensaker / Kisa II 1+ goals
88%
Ullensaker / Kisa II 2+ goals
62%
Ullensaker / Kisa II 3+ goals
35%
HamKam II 1+ goals
93%
HamKam II 2+ goals
73%
HamKam II 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Ullensaker / Kisa II (draw refunded)
40%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullensaker / Kisa II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 3.69 · 13 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullensaker / Kisa II attack 1.54 + HamKam II defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.12

HamKam II attack 1.54 + Ullensaker / Kisa II defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ullensaker / Kisa II scores more
32%
level
19%
HamKam II scores more
49%

HamKam II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "HamKam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Ullensaker / Kisa II 4–2 HamKam II

Ullensaker / Kisa II beat HamKam II 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Jessheim Stadion in Jessheim.