Ullensaker / Kisa II 1–2 Bjørkelangen

Ullensaker / Kisa II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bjørkelangen

4/21/2025

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 3Jessheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullensaker / Kisa II30%

×Draw20%

Bjørkelangen50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ullensaker / Kisa IIExpected goals in this matchBjørkelangen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.34

Ullensaker / Kisa II

1.81

Bjørkelangen

2.34

Bjørkelangen creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.54

creates per match

1.00

3.69

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Ullensaker / Kisa II

1.54

Bjørkelangen

1.00

allows per match

Ullensaker / Kisa II

3.69

Bjørkelangen

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ullensaker / Kisa II+0.00on par

Bjørkelangen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullensaker / Kisa II ↓

Bjørkelangen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Ullensaker / Kisa II or draw

50%

Ullensaker / Kisa II or Bjørkelangen

80%

Draw or Bjørkelangen

70%

Winning margin

Ullensaker / Kisa II wins by 2+

15%

Bjørkelangen wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Ullensaker / Kisa II 1+ goals

84%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 2+ goals

54%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 3+ goals

27%

Bjørkelangen 1+ goals

90%

Bjørkelangen 2+ goals

67%

Bjørkelangen 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Ullensaker / Kisa II (draw refunded)

38%

Bjørkelangen (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullensaker / Kisa II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 3.69 · 13 matches

Bjørkelangen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullensaker / Kisa II attack 1.54 + Bjørkelangen defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.81

Bjørkelangen attack 1.00 + Ullensaker / Kisa II defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ullensaker / Kisa II scores more

30%

level

20%

Bjørkelangen scores more

50%

Bjørkelangen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bjørkelangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff