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Ullensaker / Kisa II vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Ullensaker / Kisa II
Ullensaker / Kisa II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
9/28/20253. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 22Jessheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ullensaker / Kisa II34%
×Draw19%
Åssiden IF47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ullensaker / Kisa II
2.20
Åssiden IF
2.58

Åssiden IF creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ullensaker / Kisa II
1.54
Åssiden IF
1.46

allows per match

Ullensaker / Kisa II
3.69
Åssiden IF
2.85

finishing

Ullensaker / Kisa II+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ullensaker / Kisa II ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Ullensaker / Kisa II or draw
53%
Ullensaker / Kisa II or Åssiden IF
81%
Draw or Åssiden IF
66%

Winning margin

Ullensaker / Kisa II wins by 2+
19%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Ullensaker / Kisa II 1+ goals
89%
Ullensaker / Kisa II 2+ goals
64%
Ullensaker / Kisa II 3+ goals
37%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
92%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
72%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Ullensaker / Kisa II (draw refunded)
42%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ullensaker / Kisa II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 3.69 · 13 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ullensaker / Kisa II attack 1.54 + Åssiden IF defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.20

Åssiden IF attack 1.46 + Ullensaker / Kisa II defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ullensaker / Kisa II scores more
34%
level
19%
Åssiden IF scores more
47%

Åssiden IF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Åssiden IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Ullensaker / Kisa II 3–3 Åssiden IF

Ullensaker / Kisa II and Åssiden IF drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Jessheim Stadion in Jessheim.