Ull/Kisa 5–3 Skeid: Result & Stats

Ull/Kisa

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Skeid

A. Empa 90'

S. Barane 61', 7'

L. Sesay 45'

Z. Bello 28'

Z. Bello 77' (OG)

E. Vestergaard 70' (OG)

J. Fiksdal 22'

4/6/2026

2. Division - Group 2 · Round 1Jessheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ull/Kisa38%

×Draw23%

Skeid39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ull/KisaExpected goals in this matchSkeid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.67

Ull/Kisa

1.66

Skeid

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 32 away

2.38

creates per match

1.47

1.86

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Ull/Kisa

2.38

Skeid

1.47

allows per match

Ull/Kisa

1.86

Skeid

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ull/Kisa+0.00on par

Skeid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ull/Kisa ↓

Skeid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ull/Kisa or draw

61%

Ull/Kisa or Skeid

77%

Draw or Skeid

62%

Winning margin

Ull/Kisa wins by 2+

19%

Skeid wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ull/Kisa 1+ goals

81%

Ull/Kisa 2+ goals

49%

Ull/Kisa 3+ goals

23%

Skeid 1+ goals

81%

Skeid 2+ goals

50%

Skeid 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Ull/Kisa (draw refunded)

50%

Skeid (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ull/Kisa at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.86 · 58 matches

Skeid away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ull/Kisa attack 2.38 + Skeid defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.66

Skeid attack 1.47 + Ull/Kisa defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ull/Kisa scores more

38%

level

23%

Skeid scores more

39%

Skeid at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Skeid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

22'

28'

45'

61'

62'

H. Altai← F. Delaveris

62'

T. Myhre← D. Sarotic

62'

J. Kvernstuen← A. Akinyemi

65'

E. Bjornsengen← E. O. el Arbi

70'

E. VestergaardOwn goal

72'

F. Stensland← K. Odemarksbakken

73'

N. Loulanti← S. Ostadi

77'

Z. BelloOwn goal

82'

B. Moustapha← M. Lindback

88'

A. Empa← Z. Bello

88'

90'

90+5'

90'

Ull/Kisa

Skeid

1

5

15

22

23

▼

Akinyemi

26

▼

Sarotic

9

▼

Delaveris

10

▼

Lindback

Dubois

16

▼

Odemarksb

7

⚽

Fiksdal

31

Sveinhaug

2

▼

Arbi

3

🥅

Vestergaa

4

Bjorkkjae

13

⚽🥅

▼

Bello

7

Naustdal

8

Ignjic

9

⚽

Sesay

21

Kjenstebe

11

⚽2

▼

Barane

18

▼

Ostadi

Manager: Kasey Wehrman

65'▲E. Bjornsengen←▼E. O. el Arbi

73'▲N. Loulanti←▼S. Ostadi

88'▲A. Empa←▼Z. Bello

88'▲M. Braten←▼S. Barane

Ull/Kisa substitutes

1Christensen14Empa16Braten19Loulanti20Lyngstad22Karlsen24Bjornsengen25Shahid

Manager: Vilde Rislaa

62'▲H. Altai←▼F. Delaveris

62'▲T. Myhre←▼D. Sarotic

62'▲J. Kvernstuen←▼A. Akinyemi

72'▲F. Stensland←▼K. Odemarksbakken

82'▲B. Moustapha←▼M. Lindback

Skeid substitutes

24Solberg3Ekroll4Altai8Getz14Myhre17Moustapha29Apold-Aasen33Stensland39Kvernstuen

Match Recap: Ull/Kisa vs Skeid

Ull/Kisa beat Skeid 5-3 in 2. Division - Group 2 on April 6, 2026.

Goals: S. Barane (7', 61'), J. Fiksdal (22'), Z. Bello (28', 77' o.g.), L. Sesay (45'), E. Vestergaard (70' o.g.), A. Empa (90').

The match was played at Jessheim Stadion in Jessheim.

Ull/Kisa vs Skeid — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ull/Kisa vs Skeid