Ull/Kisa 0–0 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Ull/Kisa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ham-Kam

10/29/2021

1. Division · Round 26Jessheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ull/Kisa36%

×Draw24%

Ham-Kam40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ull/KisaExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.55

Ull/Kisa

1.45

Ham-Kam

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 46 away

1.68

creates per match

1.65

1.45

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Ull/Kisa

1.68

Ham-Kam

1.65

allows per match

Ull/Kisa

1.45

Ham-Kam

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ull/Kisa+0.00on par

Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ull/Kisa ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ull/Kisa or draw

60%

Ull/Kisa or Ham-Kam

76%

Draw or Ham-Kam

64%

Winning margin

Ull/Kisa wins by 2+

17%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ull/Kisa 1+ goals

77%

Ull/Kisa 2+ goals

42%

Ull/Kisa 3+ goals

18%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

79%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

46%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Ull/Kisa (draw refunded)

47%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ull/Kisa at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.45 · 44 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ull/Kisa attack 1.68 + Ham-Kam defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ham-Kam attack 1.65 + Ull/Kisa defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ull/Kisa scores more

36%

level

24%

Ham-Kam scores more

40%

Ham-Kam at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

W. Lunde← O. Langås

62'

K. Gunnarshaug← H. Andresen

71'

E. Sildnes← T. Bair

77'

D. Arzani← N. Rekdal

79'

S. Jenssen← H. Kristiansen

79'

M. Torp← J. Moula

85'

H. Rødølen← M. Bjørlo

Ull/Kisa

Ham-Kam

96

5

58

4

33

18

▼

Rekdal

7

Onsrud

6

Eriksen

11

▼

Bjørlo

9

Enkerud

23

▼

31

8

20

9

▼

Langås

24

Husebø

11

Aas

16

▼

Kristians

14

▼

Andresen

7

Sørløkk

21

▼

Moula

15

Rakneberg

Manager: S. Landro

48'▲W. Lunde←▼O. Langås

62'▲K. Gunnarshaug←▼H. Andresen

79'▲S. Jenssen←▼H. Kristiansen

79'▲M. Torp←▼J. Moula

Ull/Kisa substitutes

22Lunde17Gunnarshaug5Jenssen25Torp1Gjertsen4Hallstensen27Hokstad

Manager: K. Rekdal

71'▲E. Sildnes←▼T. Bair

77'▲D. Arzani←▼N. Rekdal

85'▲H. Rødølen←▼M. Bjørlo

Ham-Kam substitutes

10Sildnes25Arzani14Rødølen12Jarosiński21Thoresen28Ødegård53Berisha