Ull/Kisa 2–3 Eidsvold: Result & Stats

Ull/Kisa

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Eidsvold

J. Skille 35', 12'

H. Henriksen 86'

S. Stenseth 45'

Notoane 18'

3/29/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Jessheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ull/Kisa48%

×Draw20%

Eidsvold32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ull/KisaExpected goals in this matchEidsvold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.82

Ull/Kisa

2.25

Eidsvold

1.82

Ull/Kisa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

2.38

creates per match

1.78

1.86

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Ull/Kisa

2.38

Eidsvold

1.78

allows per match

Ull/Kisa

1.86

Eidsvold

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ull/Kisa+0.00on par

Eidsvold+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ull/Kisa ↓

Eidsvold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Ull/Kisa or draw

68%

Ull/Kisa or Eidsvold

80%

Draw or Eidsvold

52%

Winning margin

Ull/Kisa wins by 2+

28%

Eidsvold wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ull/Kisa 1+ goals

89%

Ull/Kisa 2+ goals

65%

Ull/Kisa 3+ goals

39%

Eidsvold 1+ goals

84%

Eidsvold 2+ goals

54%

Eidsvold 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Ull/Kisa (draw refunded)

60%

Eidsvold (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ull/Kisa at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.86 · 58 matches

Eidsvold away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ull/Kisa attack 2.38 + Eidsvold defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.25

Eidsvold attack 1.78 + Ull/Kisa defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ull/Kisa scores more

48%

level

20%

Eidsvold scores more

32%

Ull/Kisa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ull/Kisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

18'

35'

45'

46'

V. Kaba← E. Oy

60'

H. Thorkildsen

67'

A. M. Bandeh K.← S. Stenseth

84'

86'

90'

90+3'

Ull/Kisa

Eidsvold

12

2

5

26

29

8

11

⚽

Notoane

16

Johnsen

17

⚽

▼

Stenseth

23

▼

Oy

10

⚽

12

2

3

5

27

8

16

21

9

⚽2

Skille

10

Flores

22

Aleksanja

Manager: K. Wehrman

Ull/Kisa substitutes

31Kristiansen6Naustdal14Bjornsengen15Husam19Skarpsno

46'▲V. Kaba←▼E. Oy

67'▲A. M. Bandeh K.←▼S. Stenseth

Eidsvold substitutes

1Andersson9Kaba15Egbe18Sorensen19Bandeh20Knudsen27K.

Match Recap: Ull/Kisa vs Eidsvold

Eidsvold beat Ull/Kisa 3-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on March 29, 2025.

Goals: J. Skille (12', 35'), Notoane (18'), S. Stenseth (45'), H. Henriksen (86').

The match was played at Jessheim Stadion in Jessheim.

Ull/Kisa vs Eidsvold — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ull/Kisa vs Eidsvold