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Ull/Kisa vs Alta — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Ull/Kisa
Ull/Kisa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Alta
Alta
9/22/20242. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Jessheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Ull/Kisa55%
×Draw19%
Alta26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ull/Kisa
2.42
Alta
1.64

Ull/Kisa creates 48% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 65 away

creates per match

Ull/Kisa
2.38
Alta
1.42

allows per match

Ull/Kisa
1.86
Alta
2.45

finishing

Ull/Kisa+0.00on par
Alta+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ull/Kisa ↓

Alta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Ull/Kisa or draw
74%
Ull/Kisa or Alta
81%
Draw or Alta
45%

Winning margin

Ull/Kisa wins by 2+
34%
Alta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ull/Kisa 1+ goals
91%
Ull/Kisa 2+ goals
69%
Ull/Kisa 3+ goals
43%
Alta 1+ goals
81%
Alta 2+ goals
49%
Alta 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ull/Kisa (draw refunded)
68%
Alta (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ull/Kisa at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.86 · 58 matches

Alta away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.45 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ull/Kisa attack 2.38 + Alta defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.42

Alta attack 1.42 + Ull/Kisa defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ull/Kisa scores more
55%
level
19%
Alta scores more
26%

Ull/Kisa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ull/Kisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ull/Kisa vs Alta

Ull/Kisa and Alta drew 2-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Jessheim Stadion in Jessheim.