Uljanik 3–4 Marsonia: Result & Stats | Second NL

Uljanik

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Marsonia

L. Travaglia 90+2'

N. Zikovic 88'

R. Peric-Komsic 4'

D. Peco 62'

H. Dilaver 31'

B. Bujan 28'

M. Zuljevic 13'

10/26/2024

Second NL · Round 10Stadion Veruda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Uljanik55%

×Draw21%

Marsonia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UljanikExpected goals in this matchMarsonia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.29

Uljanik

2.08

Marsonia

1.29

Uljanik creates 61% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

1.81

creates per match

1.36

1.23

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Uljanik

1.81

Marsonia

1.36

allows per match

Uljanik

1.23

Marsonia

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uljanik+0.00on par

Marsonia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uljanik ↓

Marsonia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Uljanik or draw

77%

Uljanik or Marsonia

79%

Draw or Marsonia

45%

Winning margin

Uljanik wins by 2+

33%

Marsonia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Uljanik 1+ goals

87%

Uljanik 2+ goals

61%

Uljanik 3+ goals

34%

Marsonia 1+ goals

72%

Marsonia 2+ goals

37%

Marsonia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Uljanik (draw refunded)

70%

Marsonia (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uljanik at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Marsonia away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uljanik attack 1.81 + Marsonia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.08

Marsonia attack 1.36 + Uljanik defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Uljanik scores more

55%

level

21%

Marsonia scores more

23%

Uljanik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Uljanik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

R. Peric-Komsic

13'

M. Zuljevic

28'

B. Bujan

31'

H. Dilaver

62'

D. Peco

88'

N. Zikovic

90+2'

L. Travaglia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff