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Uljanik vs Jadran Poreč — Second NL 2022

Uljanik
Uljanik
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
R. Peric-Komsic 66', 55'
10/9/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 8Stadion Veruda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Uljanik63%
×Draw19%
Jadran Poreč18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uljanik
2.27
Jadran Poreč
1.11

Uljanik creates 105% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

creates per match

Uljanik
1.81
Jadran Poreč
1.00

allows per match

Uljanik
1.23
Jadran Poreč
2.73

finishing

Uljanik+0.00on par
Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uljanik ↓

Jadran Poreč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Uljanik or draw
82%
Uljanik or Jadran Poreč
81%
Draw or Jadran Poreč
37%

Winning margin

Uljanik wins by 2+
40%
Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Uljanik 1+ goals
90%
Uljanik 2+ goals
66%
Uljanik 3+ goals
39%
Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
67%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
30%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Uljanik (draw refunded)
78%
Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uljanik at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uljanik attack 1.81 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.27

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Uljanik defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Uljanik scores more
63%
level
19%
Jadran Poreč scores more
18%

Uljanik at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Uljanik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
R. Peric-Komsic
66'
R. Peric-Komsic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Uljanik 2–0 Jadran Poreč

Uljanik beat Jadran Poreč 2-0 in Second NL on October 9, 2024.

Goals: R. Peric-Komsic (55', 66').

The match was played at Stadion Veruda in Pula.