Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ulinzi Stars vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
CANC
12:00
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
6/26/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 21Afraha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ulinzi Stars52%
×Draw26%
Zoo Kericho21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulinzi Stars
1.50
Zoo Kericho
0.85

Ulinzi Stars creates 76% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 52 away

creates per match

Ulinzi Stars
1.06
Zoo Kericho
0.90

allows per match

Ulinzi Stars
0.80
Zoo Kericho
1.94

finishing

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulinzi Stars ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ulinzi Stars or draw
79%
Ulinzi Stars or Zoo Kericho
74%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
48%

Winning margin

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
27%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
78%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
44%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
19%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
57%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
21%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
71%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulinzi Stars at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.06 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.50

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ulinzi Stars scores more
52%
level
26%
Zoo Kericho scores more
21%

Ulinzi Stars at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ulinzi Stars face Zoo Kericho (FKF Premier League)

FKF Premier League returns with Ulinzi Stars hosting Zoo Kericho. Match starts June 26, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ulinzi Stars host Zoo Kericho at Afraha Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.