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Ulinzi Stars vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
FT
1 – 1
Western Stima
Western Stima
2/11/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 13Afraha Stadium (Nakuru)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ulinzi Stars44%
×Draw30%
Western Stima27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulinzi Stars
1.20
Western Stima
0.87

Ulinzi Stars creates 38% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 52 away

creates per match

Ulinzi Stars
1.06
Western Stima
0.94

allows per match

Ulinzi Stars
0.80
Western Stima
1.33

finishing

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulinzi Stars ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ulinzi Stars or draw
73%
Ulinzi Stars or Western Stima
70%
Draw or Western Stima
56%

Winning margin

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
19%
Western Stima wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
70%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
34%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
12%
Western Stima 1+ goals
58%
Western Stima 2+ goals
22%
Western Stima 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
62%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulinzi Stars at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.06 + Western Stima defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Western Stima attack 0.94 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ulinzi Stars scores more
44%
level
30%
Western Stima scores more
27%

Ulinzi Stars at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulinzi Stars vs Western Stima

Ulinzi Stars and Western Stima drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on February 11, 2019.

The match was played at Afraha Stadium (Nakuru).