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Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker — Shield Cup 2022

Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tusker
Tuskeradvanced
S. Odhiambo 42'
J. Mwakasaba 90+3'
E. Kapaito 25'
5/3/2026Shield CupShield Cup · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ulinzi Stars41%
×Draw24%
Tusker35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulinzi Stars
1.63
Tusker
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ulinzi Stars
2.00
Tusker
1.75

allows per match

Ulinzi Stars
1.25
Tusker
1.25

finishing

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulinzi Stars ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ulinzi Stars or draw
65%
Ulinzi Stars or Tusker
76%
Draw or Tusker
59%

Winning margin

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
21%
Tusker wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
80%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
48%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
22%
Tusker 1+ goals
78%
Tusker 2+ goals
44%
Tusker 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
54%
Tusker (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulinzi Stars at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulinzi Stars attack 2.00 + Tusker defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tusker attack 1.75 + Ulinzi Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ulinzi Stars scores more
41%
level
24%
Tusker scores more
35%

Ulinzi Stars at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
E. Kapaito
42'
S. Odhiambo
90+3'
J. Mwakasaba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shield Cup: Ulinzi Stars 1–2 Tusker

Tusker beat Ulinzi Stars 2-1 in Shield Cup on May 3, 2026.

Goals: E. Kapaito (25'), S. Odhiambo (42'), J. Mwakasaba (90+3').