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Ulinzi Stars vs Thika United — FKF Premier League 2018

Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
FT
0 – 0
Thika United
Thika United
4/15/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 11Afraha Stadium (Nakuru)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ulinzi Stars49%
×Draw29%
Thika United22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulinzi Stars
1.28
Thika United
0.74

Ulinzi Stars creates 73% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ulinzi Stars
1.06
Thika United
0.67

allows per match

Ulinzi Stars
0.80
Thika United
1.50

finishing

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par
Thika United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulinzi Stars ↓

Thika United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ulinzi Stars or draw
78%
Ulinzi Stars or Thika United
71%
Draw or Thika United
51%

Winning margin

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
23%
Thika United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
72%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
37%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
14%
Thika United 1+ goals
52%
Thika United 2+ goals
17%
Thika United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
70%
Thika United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulinzi Stars at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

Thika United away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.06 + Thika United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Thika United attack 0.67 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ulinzi Stars scores more
49%
level
29%
Thika United scores more
22%

Ulinzi Stars at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulinzi Stars vs Thika United

Ulinzi Stars and Thika United drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on April 15, 2018.

The match was played at Afraha Stadium (Nakuru).