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Ulinzi Stars vs Sony Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
CANC
00:00
Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
9/28/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 4Afraha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Ulinzi Stars37%
×Draw32%
Sony Sugar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulinzi Stars
1.00
Sony Sugar
0.89

Ulinzi Stars creates 12% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 39 away

creates per match

Ulinzi Stars
1.06
Sony Sugar
0.97

allows per match

Ulinzi Stars
0.80
Sony Sugar
0.95

finishing

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par
Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulinzi Stars ↓

Sony Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ulinzi Stars or draw
69%
Ulinzi Stars or Sony Sugar
68%
Draw or Sony Sugar
63%

Winning margin

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
14%
Sony Sugar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
63%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
26%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
8%
Sony Sugar 1+ goals
59%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
22%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
54%
Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulinzi Stars at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.06 + Sony Sugar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sony Sugar attack 0.97 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ulinzi Stars scores more
37%
level
32%
Sony Sugar scores more
31%

Ulinzi Stars at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ulinzi Stars face Sony Sugar (FKF Premier League)

FKF Premier League returns with Ulinzi Stars hosting Sony Sugar. Match starts September 28, 2019. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ulinzi Stars host Sony Sugar at Afraha Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.