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Ulinzi Stars vs Homeboyz — FKF Premier League 2018

Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Homeboyz
Homeboyz
11/26/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 12Ulinzi Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Ulinzi Stars38%
×Draw30%
Homeboyz32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulinzi Stars
1.10
Homeboyz
0.99

Ulinzi Stars creates 11% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 146 away

creates per match

Ulinzi Stars
1.06
Homeboyz
1.19

allows per match

Ulinzi Stars
0.80
Homeboyz
1.15

finishing

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par
Homeboyz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulinzi Stars ↓

Homeboyz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ulinzi Stars or draw
68%
Ulinzi Stars or Homeboyz
70%
Draw or Homeboyz
62%

Winning margin

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
15%
Homeboyz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
67%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
30%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
10%
Homeboyz 1+ goals
63%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
26%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
54%
Homeboyz (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulinzi Stars at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

Homeboyz away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.15 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.06 + Homeboyz defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Homeboyz attack 1.19 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ulinzi Stars scores more
38%
level
30%
Homeboyz scores more
32%

Ulinzi Stars at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Ulinzi Stars 0–1 Homeboyz

Homeboyz beat Ulinzi Stars 1-0 in FKF Premier League on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Ulinzi Sports Complex in Nairobi.