Homeboyz 0–1 Ulinzi Stars: Result & Stats

Homeboyz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ulinzi Stars

4/12/2026

Shield Cup · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Homeboyz43%

×Draw28%

Ulinzi Stars28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HomeboyzExpected goals in this matchUlinzi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.96

Homeboyz

1.27

Ulinzi Stars

0.96

Homeboyz creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.71

creates per match

1.50

0.43

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Homeboyz

1.71

Ulinzi Stars

1.50

allows per match

Homeboyz

0.43

Ulinzi Stars

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Ulinzi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw

72%

Homeboyz or Ulinzi Stars

72%

Draw or Ulinzi Stars

57%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+

20%

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals

72%

Homeboyz 2+ goals

36%

Homeboyz 3+ goals

14%

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals

62%

Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals

25%

Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)

61%

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Ulinzi Stars away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.71 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ulinzi Stars attack 1.50 + Homeboyz defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Homeboyz scores more

43%

level

28%

Ulinzi Stars scores more

28%

Homeboyz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff